Innovative Solution

hydropower, cumulative impact assessment, development scenarios, optimization, limits of allowable change

technical

communication, planning policy

Rivers without Boundaries (RwB) International Coalition is developing relatively simple, but comprehensive express-assessment method that allows to compare basin-wide environmental impacts of various water infrastructure development scenarios. Methodology is based on semi-quantitative assessment of cumulative impacts of flow alteration, basin fragmentation and creation of anthropogenic water reservoir in place of natural river ecosystem. We analyze how these impacts from one or several dams affect known environmental values in a given river basin. All measures of impact we use were suggested in scientific literature and our innovation is in combining them in one effective and transparent assessment tool, that could be customized and adapted according to situation in a given basin under assessment. Assessment results also allow to compare how much impact is caused per unit of produced energy providing a rough measure of ecological efficiency.

This method is most suitable for early planning of dam allocation, basin management schemes, strategic assessments, etc. At later planning stages it could be complemented by additional more traditional measures of individual dam impacts, that do not capture basin-wide effects.

In Amur River basin out project is developing a clear roadmap relating water infrastructure development plans to basin-wide environmental impacts. development scheme. Need to conduct such assessment in part is stemming from transboundary nature of the basin and limited ability of  Russia and China to rely on potentially subjective expert judgements. Our methodology does not rely on expert opinion, but on objective indicators agreed at the start of the assessment.

This will serve as a basis for broad agreement on the limits of allowable change in river ecosystem and corresponding choice of  optimal hydropower.

We started in Amur River basin, but the method suits any river basin with planned hydropower development. We plan to analyze all large river basins of North Eurasia (Amur, Ob, Yenisey, etc). With some adjustment of indicators method could be used in other basins.

Methodology is developed by experts of RwB Coalition , WWF , Interfax-ERA , Pacific Institute of Georgaphy.

RwB Coalition network involves into decision making in Russia , China and Mongolia citizen groups, research institutions, business companies, resource-managing agencies and provincial governments, as well as indigenous people associations.

International organizations and councils would be helpful in promoting such approach. International associations of hydropower industry and water managers could also be instrumental.

 Basin Management Councils would be the most legitimate initiators of assessment in each river basin. In case of Russia Ministry of Energy is responsible for planning new hydropower facilities, therefore is an important participant. Buy-in of hydropower companies highly desirable. National and regional NGOs participation essential.

2008-2011. Development of initial methodological tools. Extensive international expert review at several stages. Collection of basin-wide hydrological and ecological data for Amur River, GIS development and database design. Amur River Basin Assessment developed with 60 existing and planned dams and 50 development scenarios  analyzed and compared.  Possible future hydropower development scenarios ranked and presented to decision-makers. Assessment results used in discussions on new hydro placement.

2012-2013. Dialogue with hydropower companies to design joint assessment  of river basins. GIS database development and data acquisition. Developing a module to incorporate river ecosystem diversity. Assessment of Yenisey River Basin in Russia and Mongolia. Development of comprehensive manual on hydropower impact assessments. Training new users.

2014-2015. Dialogue with Russian Energy Ministry to assess remaining large basins and suggest adjustments to the National Scheme for Placement of New Energy Facilities. Adjusting methods for use in South Asia, Latin America and other regions.

While impacts and benefits of individual hydropower dams have been successfully measured for a long time, there has always been the problem of analyzing impacts of multiple dams in a large river basin and comparing cumulative impacts of alternative development scenarios.

Using this method we can characterize cumulative environmental impacts from almost any combination of dams in the basin as a whole and at different locations in the basin. We suggest evaluation tool that is very necessary element in strategic assessment  and basin-wide river management planning.

It is also very cost-efficient. Such strategic assessment for the basin no matter how elaborate still requires well under 20 % of expenditures for standard EIA needed by any large hydro-engineering project, which also normally happens at much later stage.

So far we have analyzed Amur River Basin and presented assessment results for 50 hydropower development scenarios. We found that “ecological efficiency” of hydropower plants could vary by an order of magnitude (13 times), which means that there is tremendous room for improvement. We have demonstrated that new Trans-Sibirsky Hydro proposed by Yangtze Power and Evrosibenergo Co has maximum impact with relatively little energy production and pointed to at least 2 possible alternatives with 5-10 times smaller impacts.

We also have fully developed database structure and evaluation algorithms allowing to collect and analyse data from any other basin and GIS techniques providing visualization for the assessment process and results.

Process indicators:

-Number of organizations and experts trained to use methodology

-Number of basins and hydropower development scenarios anaalysed

-Number of key stakeholders supporting such assessment process

Result indicators:

-hydropower development schemes modified after assessment

-planning process incorporating principles or results of this assessment

- river basins for which limits of allowable change by hydropower development  explored and agreed upon with the use of these assessment tools

-investment agencies incorporating these principles in their assessment processes and funding policies

Basin Management Committees, environment and water management agencies– when developing integrated river basin management schemes and other basin planning documentation.

Large Hydropower (Energy) Companies- when planning  new hydro in already affected basins or multiple hydropower dams.

Ministry of Energy or other government departments developing long-term planning for new production facilities.

National and regional NGOs designing basin-wide conservation strategies and confronting impacts from multiple hydropower projects.

After thorough trial in at least 3-5 large river basins the refined methodology could be used in next Global Assessment of River Basins.  This will likely require support from relevant UN institutions.

Main lesson – to keep focus on systemic basin-wide imacts of hydropower dam development and to avoid incorporation in the same evaluation scheme multiple local impacts of individual dams. If necessary – design separate tally that could take them into account. Keep assessment algorythm absolutely transparent and easily understandible by any userparticipant. Never mix in one relatively objective (but always partial) assessment results and  policy decisions that utilize those results. (E.g. assessment shows degree of impact from various development scenarios relatively objectively, but setting  threashhold of “allowable impact” is always a policy judgement inevitably quite subjective)

Resources:

In a given river basin technical part of assessment  requires

1-2 core workers with understanding of hydrology, freshwater ecosystem conservation and GIS for at least 5-6 months

2-5 additional thematic experts for 0.5-2 months each (unless everything already published and available)

Access to hydrological data and data on potential hydropower dams

Financial resources for technical part will vary between countries and basins, but if we start Amur River from scratch now again full analysis will cost approx. 100000Euro

Policy and public outreach part depends on basin, countries, political will, composition of supporting institutions.

International organizations concerned with freshwater ecosystem conservation, IRWM, IRBM, sustainable hydropower and so on.

Investors considering risk of investment into hydropower and other water infrastructure.

We cooperate and develop dialogue with above mentioned organizations as it relates to Amur and Yenisey transboundary river basins. So far we have interest expressed by hydropower companies, regional authorities, basin management council and academy of science.

Four organizations are most involved : Rivers without Boundaries International Coalition , WWF-Russia , Interfax-ERA , Pacific Institute of Georgaphy.

Contact persons :

Eugene Simonov, Doctor Conservation Science. Coordinator, Rivers without Boundaries International Coalition. E-mail : simonov@riverswithoutboundaries.org, esimonovster@gmail.com

Evgeny Egidarev, Pacific Institute of Georgaphy  and WWF Russia,

e-mail : egidarev@yandex.ru , EEgidarev@amur.wwf.ru

-Recently published concept paper (in English) on the future of hydropower in the Amur River Basin uses early version of our assessment methodology.(http://www.dauriarivers.org/documents/amurhydroreview2011/)

- UNDP Russia. Energy Solution Exchange.Project on Hydropower. (initial methodology in Russian) http://russiandams.ru/obzory/ekologicheskaya-otsenka-ges/ekspress-analiz-ekologicheskikh-posledstvii

-       Presentation at Sino-Russian « Amur-2011 » forum (in Russian) http://www.dauriarivers.org/pdf/2011Shilka_sm.pdf